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MEDIA RELEASE 5/02/07

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Military attack on Iran would have disastrous consequences warns new report:

Coalition urges new diplomatic push to avoid crisis

Military action against Iran could have disastrous global consequences according to a new
report published today by a diverse group of organisations including Oxfam, the Foreign
Policy Centre, faith groups and others.


On the one year anniversary of Iran’s referral to the Security Council, a new joint report by 15
organisations - including think tanks, aid agencies, religious groups and Trade Unions - warns
that, despite the seriousness of the situation, there is still ‘time to talk’. This must be used to
avoid an escalation with potentially disastrous consequences.

Sir Richard Dalton, UK Ambassador to Iran 2002-2006, who will be speaking at the launch of
the report said:

"After three years in Iran, I am well aware of the threat Iran poses and of the
frustrations of engagement. I also know that firmness, patience and a commitment to
diplomacy offer the best chance of success. Given Iranian defiance of the Security
Council, there is bound to be a break in the negotiations on the nuclear issue. But both
sides should work for a resumption. It is vital that the US becomes fully involved in
creative diplomacy. Recourse to military action - other than in legitimate self-defence -
is not only unlikely to work but would be a disaster for Iran, the region and quite
possibly the world."

The report urges the UK government to work with allies in a sustained effort to find a
diplomatic solution. In particular, they should push for:

-- Face to face talks between Iran and the US

-- A compromise on the suspension of uranium enrichment as a precondition for
negotiation

-- Further development of a ‘grand bargain’ in which the EU offer of June 2006 is
developed further to include security guarantees between Israel, Iran and the US.

“The consequences of military action against Iran are not only unpalatable, they are
unthinkable. Even according to the worst estimates, Iran is still years away from having
a nuclear weapon. There is still time to talk and the Prime Minister must make sure our
allies use it,” said Stephen Twigg, Director of the Foreign Policy Centre.

According to the report, military action against Iran could:

-- Further jeopardise the prospects of peace taking root in the Middle East - Long standing
Iranian links to Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia
groups in Iraq, along with the presence of significant minority Shia populations in Saudi
Arabia, could lead to severe destabilisation throughout the Middle East.

-- Severely undermine hopes for stability in Iraq - Iran has several thousand intelligence
agents operating in the Shia region of Iraq and has been accused of arming Shia
insurgents. A decision to activate insurgent units could lead to a massive escalation in
violence.

-- Bolster the position of hard-liners and set back chances of reform within Iran - Recent
municipal elections suggest that the bellicose rhetoric of Ahmadinejad is beginning to
lose appeal. Over the winter there have been fuel shortages and inflation continues to
rise. Ahmadinejad's popularity is waning. Military strikes would unify Iranians, ignite
greater nationalist feeling and undermine the growing prospects of an internal shift in
power.

-- Cause significant civilian casualties

-- Push developing countries into greater poverty – If military action led to an increase in
oil prices. For example, a $10 increase in oil price could drop the GDPs of Sub-Saharan
African states by an average of 3% with serious implications for those already living in
poverty.

-- Damage UK, US and European economies – if oil prices rose to $100 per barrel this
could increase the risk of recession.

-- Threaten serious environmental contamination - Bombing could result in radioactive
contamination, oil slicks and oil well fires that could take years to deal with.

-- Increase the terror threat to the UK by fuelling resentment and bolstering extremists.

" A military attack on Iran could add yet more human misery to a region where nearly
70 million people are already suffering from the effects of conflict and war*," said Adam
Leach, Oxfam GB’s Regional Director for the Middle East.

"I think our decision makers have yet to appreciate the full consequences of a military
attack against Iran. As this report shows such an attack would open a Pandora's box.
The view held by some in Washington that all diplomatic and political options have been
exhausted is a palpable nonsense that needs to be challenged,” said Dr Ali Ansari,
Director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St Andrews University.

*Combined populations of Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Israel

Notes to Editors

For more information, a copy of the report or interviews please contact Crisis Action on:
020 7324 4747 / 4748 or 0779 158 6211/ 07957 120 853
The Coalition includes: Amicus, Amos Trust, British Muslim Forum, Christian Solidarity
Worldwide, Foreign Policy Centre, GMB, International Physicians for the Prevention of
Nuclear War, Medact, Muslim Council of Britain, Muslim Parliament, Ockenden
International, Oxfam, Oxford Research Group, Pax Christi, PCS, People and Planet, Unison.
The following are available for interview:
Signatories to the report:
Professor Paul Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies, Bradford University and Consultant for
the Oxford Research Group
Stephen Twigg, Director, Foreign Policy Centre
Adam Leach, Regional Director Middle East, Eastern Europe and Commonwealth of
Independent States, Oxfam GB
Additional spokespeople:
Dr Ali Ansari, Institute of Iranian Studies, University of St Andrews
Karim Sadjadpour, International Crisis Group
Sir Richard Dalton, UK Ambassador to Iran 2002-2006
ENDS